About the author, May 12 -- Joseph Brusuelas is chief economist of RSM US. His views do not represent the views of his employer.

Last July, I made the case in this magazine that a new form of stagflation, which I called stagflation lite, was on the horizon for the U.S. economy. Economic growth would slow as inflation rose due to a softening labor force, upward pressures on wage growth, and tariffs. Still, I wrote, "the prospect of galloping, 1970s-style inflation remains low."

Plenty has changed since then. The White House has removed some tariffs and unveiled others. A new conflict has broken out in the Middle East, and a resulting 47% jump in domestic gasoline prices has reignited stagflationary fears of high inflation, high unemploym...