New Delhi, April 7 -- Private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Tuesday projected a below normal South-West monsoon for 2026, estimating rainfall at 94% (±5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the June-September season.

The private forecaster's January outlook had already flagged a subpar monsoon, with the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) set to issue its first official 2026 forecast later this month.

"After a year and a half of La Nina conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral. Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will continue to grow stronger until the fall ...