New Delhi, March 30 -- MUMBAI: A key test for the market's near-term direction will come on Monday, when equity derivatives expire and investors decide whether to take delivery of stocks or roll over positions, an indicator analysts say could signal whether recent declines find support or extend.

The expiry comes against the backdrop of an escalating war in West Asia and a sharp rise in crude prices that have already pushed the Nifty down 9.4% from 25,178.65 at the end of last month, when the conflict began, to 22,819.6 on Friday, 27 March.

Analysts say the extent of physical settlement, where traders take delivery of shares rather than closing out or rolling over their positions, will offer a read on market conviction at current levels...