New Delhi, June 15 -- Forecasters have confirmed the arrival of El Nino, the warming of the equatorial Pacific that is known to disrupt weather patterns worldwide. For India, the development raises the risk of a weak monsoon at a time when food inflation has started to accelerate. This year's El Nino is expected to be among the strongest in decades and could persist into early 2027. Mint explains what is at stake.

On 11 June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US announced the emergence of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific. The event is forecast to strengthen through the year, peaking around November-December and persisting until February-March 2027.

NOAA has assigned a 63% probability of sea surface tempe...