New Delhi, April 15 -- With a parched monsoon forecast and a fertilizer supply chain disrupted by conflict in West Asia, Indian agriculture is caught between two raging storms. The India Meteorological Department has predicted a below-normal monsoon, while national fertilizer stocks sit at less than half of what's required for the upcoming Kharif season.

As El Niño threatens to dry up the fields and imported urea becomes harder to secure, the resilience of India's food production and the stability of rural demand are facing their toughest test in years.

Mint explores whether these twin challenges will spark a spike in food prices or significantly dent farmers' incomes.

The four-month monsoon spanning June-September is critical for...