New Delhi, May 31 -- The prospects of a normal monsoon have dimmed. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) now expects rains at 90% of normal levels, downgrading its April forecast. If it materializes, 2026 would be the driest year since 2015.

How will deficit rains affect the economy and food prices? Will a strong El Niño prolong the strain beyond the monsoon season, which ends in September? Mint explains.

In its updated long-range forecast released Friday, the IMD said rainfall during the June-September monsoon season is likely to be 90% of the long-period (50-year) average (LPA), down from 92% projected in April. Rainfall is considered normal when it falls in the 96-104% range.

The IMD says there is an 84% chance that monsoo...