New Delhi, March 23 -- India's fertilizer industry enters 2026 at a critical inflexion point: inventories are at record highs, yet the sector faces volatile global gas prices, West Asia risks, and a structurally subsidy-dependent business model. For investors, that means strong tailwinds on volume visibility but real caveats on margins and policy risk.

The immediate backdrop is a whiplash from scarcity in 2025 to abundance going into kharif 2026. Ahead of kharif 2025, India's fertilizer stocks had fallen to about 108 lakh tonnes (all nutrients) as of 1 April 2025, nearly 25% lower than the 144 lakh tonnes a year earlier, triggering fears of a supply crunch. Those concerns, plus high international prices, pushed the Centre to front-load i...