New Delhi, April 19 -- Watching TV news or listening to most consumers, you'd think the jump in oil prices since the start of the Iran war will send inflation spiraling skyward.

Most economists, meanwhile, expect that the impact of higher energy costs on inflation will be relatively trivial. Some even invoke the infamous T word: "transitory."

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, even after crude's 10% selloff on Friday on news that Iran said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation won't skyrocket, as it did in 2022 to a four-decade peak north of 9%. But the surge in oil, to a recent $81.50 per barrel from a prewar $65, will prevent inflation from making progress in coming down to the Federal Reserve's 2% annual targe...