New Delhi, Oct. 1 -- The monsoon season technically ended on 30 September. As expected, it was affected by the El Niño phenomenon, which typically leads to deficient rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.

While final figures are yet to be released, our cumulative rainfall deficit until 29 September was 13%, marginally higher than during the 2014 drought. More than the aggregate, what matters is the geographical distribution of rainfall. This reveals a much larger deficiency of 25% in east India and the southern peninsula.

The least deficit is in central India (just 3%) and then in north-west India (6%). However, there is large variation within central India, with some vulnerable areas such as Marathwada (-39%), Vidarbha (-27%) and Sa...