New Delhi, April 10 -- India's retail inflation likely rose to 3.4% in March, but only marginally up from 3.2% in February, according to a median forecast of 16 economists in a Mint poll. The rise will push inflation to a 12-month high in March, up from a 10-month high in February. The data, however, is not strictly comparable due to the base year revision (from 2012 to 2024) from January 2026.

The March figure will be below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% medium-term target, even as war-led inflationary pressures are building up. Inflation will likely be driven by a fading base effect and rising prices in non-food segments, while the status quo on fuel prices and some moderation in gold and silver prices could offset some of the ri...