New Delhi, Oct. 29 -- Notwithstanding the better-than-expected growth of 7.8%, India's economy remains vulnerable to multiple threats. Monsoon rainfall was 13% below normal because of El Niño, which is likely to strengthen until early next year.

The global environment is uncertain, both because of the war in West Asia, which has pushed up oil prices, and rising inflation in the developed world. The trade and tariff uncertainty have not helped. Also, how artificial intelligence will affect employment and productivity is unclear.

India is not insulated from any of these. The Reserve Bank of India and finance ministry have sounded caution. The long-term impact is unclear but some of these will create problems in the short-term, with s...