MUMBAI, May 18 -- The government's decision to curb silver bar imports could push exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the white metal from trading at a discount to moving into a premium over spot prices, after two weeks, amid concerns of an impending supply squeeze, analysts said.

This would mark a shift from ETFs trading at a discount to net asset value (NAV), which is calculated from spot prices, to potentially trading at a premium. It implies that if spot prices rise, ETF prices could rise more, and if spot prices fall, they would fall less than the spot.

Premiums and discounts typically reflect demand conditions. When demand for ETF units is weak, they trade below NAV or MCX spot-linked silver prices. When demand strengthens, they...