NEW DELHI, May 29 -- India is heading into the 2026 southwest monsoon with weaker rainfall prospects, after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday trimmed its forecast and flagged an emerging El Niño pattern that could weigh on agriculture, rural demand, and inflation.

The revised outlook projects seasonal rainfall at 90% of the long period average (LPA), down from 92% earlier, indicating a below-normal monsoon for June-September 2026. The long period average, based on data from 1971-2020, is 87 cm. The last below-normal monsoon was in 2023, also an El Niño year, when rainfall was at 95% of average.

"The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the Long Period Average ...