New Delhi, March 2 -- India's fertilizer subsidy bill is likely to increase in the current and next fiscal years, as tensions in the Gulf region threaten to drive up natural gas prices and freight costs, industry officials and analysts said.

Although the government makes a provisional estimate of the fertilizer subsidy at the start of the financial year-based on sowing patterns, irrigated area and historical demand-it carries an implicit obligation to enhance the allocation if unforeseen developments arise.

Currently, the fertilizer subsidy is projected at Rs.1.71 trillion for the next financial year, slightly lower compared to the revised estimate of Rs.1.86 trillion for the ongoing 2025-26 fiscal (FY26).

"If the crisis persists for l...