Expert view, June 30 -- Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, believes the Nifty 50 may deliver marginally negative returns in 2026. He, however, believes this will be the foundation for the next meaningful leg up. Ghose expects meaningful earnings improvement from Q3FY27 onwards if crude stays subdued, the monsoon remains normal, and consumption recovers.

Here are edited excerpts from the interview:

The clouds that weighed on Indian markets through much of this year are gradually clearing.

The three biggest overhangs- geopolitical uncertainty, elevated crude, and persistent FII outflows - have all shown meaningful signs of reversal.

Crude, which spiked sharply when the West Asia conflict escalated, has now broke...