New Delhi, March 9 -- "Khamenei Out." That was the title of an event wager on the prediction market Kalshi. On the website of its rival, Polymarket, wagers were being made on "the timing of the Iran war" just before it began.

Posts by Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics tool, on X indicate that six accounts collectively pocketed $1.2 million in profit from Polymarket bets. These bets were funded in the hours immediately before Saturday's action began.

After Israel and the US began combat operations against Iran on 28 February morning by Iran time, newer wagers began showing up. "Iran regime fall by?" "New Iranian regime in by?" "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?" "Reza Pahlavi return by?" These were the titles of some of the more popular wage...