New Delhi, May 19 -- In a reminder that the inflation beast is never fully tamed, but can at best be forced to retreat temporarily, wholesale price inflation in India jumped to a 42-month high of 8.3% in April. That's more than double the previous month's 3.9% and a far cry from the 0.9% recorded a year ago. The longer global oil supply remains disrupted, the likelier it will go into double digits.

And with diesel and petrol filling-station prices hiked only in May (and more hikes likely), it is just a matter of time before retail inflation, already at a 13-month high of 3.5% in April, increases.

The government can absorb some of the Gulf war's impact on household budgets, but not all.

Add to all this the fear of El Niño condition...