New Delhi, June 13 -- Climate Change and You is a fortnightly newsletter written by Bibek Bhattacharya and Sayantan Bera. Subscribe to the newsletter to get it directly in your inbox.

Dear reader,

The rainy season is here. But it isn't raining much, yet. The south-west monsoon made landfall in Kerala on 4 June, a few days later than its normal arrival date of 1 June. But that's okay. A bigger worry is the weather office's forecast of a 10% rainfall deficit this year, compared to the 50-year average, assigned a 60% probability. Another concern is that El Niño-a natural phenomenon associated with lower rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, has emerged in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Forecasts suggest that this year's El Niño could...