New Delhi, April 9 -- Has economic forecasting ever seemed so fraught with risk? A mix of almost imponderable new possibilities made possible by AI and the unpredictable state of the world makes people who trade contracts on so-called prediction markets seem foolhardy. Still, spare a kind thought for those of us in the commentariat who must hedge our prophesying.

Put aside for a moment how long the truce between the US, Israel and Iran will last. And, if it does, how to estimate the huge backlog of ships and tankers waiting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz and how long this will take to clear.

There is plenty else where outcomes seem more binary than ever. Take the concerns about private credit markets and bets made by private eq...