New Delhi, March 5 -- The day after the Union Budget on 1 February, US tariffs on Indian exports fell from 50% to 25%, and further to a promise of 18% through a trade deal. Later, the US Supreme Court verdict against 'reciprocal' tariffs resulted in a uniform levy of 10% on all countries, including India, possibly rising to 15%.

Wherever it settles, there is some reprieve for labour-intensive export sectors. But that prospect is now overshadowed by the fear of what renewed hostilities in West Asia will do to trade flows and the price of oil.

The advance estimate of GDP released a month after the Union budget is Rs.345.5 trillion for the current fiscal year. At the budget projection of 10% nominal GDP growth next year from the new base, ...