New Delhi, June 11 -- Thucydides thought rising powers tend to cause conflict. Had he been an economist looking at the explosion of Chinese exports to Europe, he might have expected a trade war. So do many analysts these days. The question is no longer whether Europe will pull up some drawbridges, but how many and how fast, and how it will deal with the consequences.

The stakes are clear. Bankruptcies in the European Union have risen to levels last seen in 2015. Germany lost 143,000 jobs in industry in 2025. In most of Europe growth is sluggish and industrial production declining. In France and Germany hard-right parties lead the polls. At a summit on June 18th EU leaders will discuss how to cope with the Chinese challenge, in an increas...