New Delhi, May 4 -- Last week, I wrote 'hopium' levels were rising in the retail investors camp, read here. That reading was validated by the markets as they edged higher. I maintain my view that the rally is powered by hope more than conviction. As I present statistical data sets, that hypothesis will become clearer.

Since 2023, I have been waxing eloquent on the outsized weightage of bank stocks in the Nifty 50. It's truly the swing sector-wherever they go, the market follows.

Last week, the Reserve Bank of India announced a new set of guidelines that marks a significant shift in how lenders assess and provide for credit risk. That's set to drag stock prices and, therefore, the indices. The state election results due today can weigh a...