New Delhi, Oct. 17 -- ndia is likely to continue importing Russian crude oil at around current levels after US President Donald Trump temporarily waived sanctions and tariffs targeting major buyers of Russian energy, analysts said. The decision removes an immediate threat of steep trade penalties for countries purchasing Russian oil and could allow Indian refiners to continue relying on discounted supplies.
Trump signed an executive order late on Friday exempting buyers from the "sanctions, restrictions, and duties" authorised under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. The waiver came a day before a 30-day deadline for enforcement expired. Trump had signed the legislation on September 18.
The law permitted tariffs of up to 100 per cent on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas. It also authorised sanctions against Russia's so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers. The latest exemption is not limited to India and could also benefit China, while allowing the US administration to reconsider the decision later.
India remains the world's largest importer of Russian seaborne crude, with purchases averaging 1.8 million barrels per day in 2026, according to ship-tracking data. China followed with an average of 1.2 million bpd, while Italy, Turkey and the Netherlands completed the top five.
Indian imports stood at around 1.82 million bpd in September, compared with approximately 1.49 million bpd for China. Shipping analytics firm Kpler expects India's purchases to remain between 1.8 million and 1.9 million bpd in October.
However, these volumes are below the highs recorded earlier in the year. India's Russian crude imports peaked at 2.6 million bpd in June and 2.57 million bpd in July.
Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said India had faced the possibility of tariffs of up to 100 per cent under the legislation because of its position among the largest buyers of Russian oil.
She said the waiver appeared to be aimed at keeping Russian supplies available in international markets and preventing further increases in oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections in November. Trump had recently announced that the US would import Russian diesel in an effort to reduce domestic fuel prices.
"This should be a sentimental positive for India; however, we note Trump's flip-flops towards Russia, as well as his general animosity towards India in his term so far, and thus caution that there may be more to come in this story post-midterms," Arora said.
Russian crude became increasingly attractive to Indian refiners after Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, prompting Western sanctions and restrictions on Russian energy exports. As European buyers reduced purchases, Russia redirected shipments towards Asian markets at substantial discounts to Brent, the global oil benchmark. Discounts on its Urals grade approached $40 per barrel at times in early 2023.
Before the war, Russian oil accounted for around 2 per cent or less of India's crude imports. Its share subsequently rose sharply, at times reaching 40 to 50 per cent, as refiners sought cheaper supplies to reduce costs and meet domestic fuel demand.
The latest waiver follows a US Treasury decision on October 9 allowing Russian diesel to be sold and imported globally, including into the US, until April 7, 2027. Analysts said that decision had already made enforcement of the new law less likely.
In September 2026, Urals crude traded at an average discount of $23 per barrel to Brent, preserving an important cost advantage for Indian refiners.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.