New Delhi, Nov. 6 -- Weather, an innocuous atmospheric condition, is no longer a topic of small talk at social gatherings. Now, we don't plan for rain by cautiously carrying an umbrella; we plan for unseasonal storms and periods of unrelenting heat. We are moving into unknown climate territory far quicker than earlier envisaged. The United Nations admitted in September that the previous benchmark of holding global warming to 1.5ºC is possibly being breached, with the best we can achieve now being 1.8ºC. Separately, in another report published in the journal BioScience, researchers warn that "Earth's climate system is moving deeper into uncharted territory". They also deduce that, of the 16 climate-linked parameters, seven are currently at "record extremes". The changes are unprecedented and far exceed our ability to respond. Carbon dioxide levels are at all-time highs, and climate disasters such as droughts, wildfires, floods, storms and extreme heat are no longer freak occurrences but are becoming annual features on our climate calendar. And even as the saga of ecological and human destruction rapidly unfolds and scientific evidence continuously confronts us with facts and forecasts, global action is found sorely wanting.
Extreme climate further widens the gap between the haves and the have-nots, especially in a country like India. Consider, for instance, the increased periods of extreme heat in India. The average temperature increased by 0.89ºC during 2015-2024, with 2024 being the warmest year on record since 1901. Today, a 45ºC or 47ºC day is common during summer in several states. But what it means for the economically able versus those who are not is completely different. Whether we agree or not, extreme heat is an emerging class divide. To shelter from the heat, the privileged can switch on their air conditioners, rack up electricity bills and decide to work from home. Not venturing out into the sweltering heat is the biggest luxury, one that is unimaginable for a family living under a flyover or a gig worker whose daily deliveries enable him to earn his wages. The health impact of extreme heat, including mortality, heat-exacerbated conditions such as heatstroke, kidney and cardiovascular illnesses, and complications during pregnancy and childbirth, is now being documented. Food and water security, the other essential aspects of human survival, are also under threat.
In a report released in October, public policy think tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) predicts that the extraordinary El Niño gaining strength across the Pacific would mean another punishing season of excruciating heat across South Asia. CEEW's India-focused district-level study highlights that 57 per cent of Indian districts, home to almost three-fourths of our population, are in danger of experiencing high to very high heat. The report also notes that India has been the most proactive in its measures compared with Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan. Over 250 city and district heat action plans are already in place, and heatwaves now fall under the ambit of natural disasters and, therefore, have access to disaster risk management funds. We have also purportedly put in place nationwide surveillance of illnesses linked to extreme heat and trained over 18,000 medical personnel to respond to such crises. While these are positive first steps, the real challenge, as always, will lie in large-scale adaptation, institutionalised implementation and impact assessment, particularly in healthcare. Long-term preparedness would mean providing safety to the most vulnerable, who, let alone air conditioners, cannot even afford a roof over their heads. Our massive informal sector, comprising farmers, construction workers, gig workers, security guards, street sellers and others, remains the least protected when the mercury rises.
A day of extreme heat causes 3,400 additional deaths in India, while a five-day heatwave can kill almost 30,000 people, according to a peer-reviewed study by researchers Piyush Narang and Ashok Gadgil from the India Energy and Climate Center at the University of California, Berkeley, US. Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh are the states with the highest death burden, accounting for 66 per cent of the excess deaths. Our government statistics put deaths due to heat at 460 in 2024 and 84 in 2025, numbers that experts suggest are significant undercounts. By comparison, Europe, which has half the population of India, reports about 1,75,000 heat-related deaths annually, a number that the United Nations estimated in 2024 was likely to soar.
Safeguarding communities during periods of exceptional heat would require a concerted effort from central, state and local governments, with adequate financial support from public, private and philanthropic funds. Substantial climate finance, planning and action are necessary if we are to build cooling shelters, factor extreme climate conditions into labour laws and urban planning, and find ways to strengthen food, water and power security. A warmer India will need a different approach.
Views expressed are personal. The writer is an author and media entrepreneur
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.