New Delhi, Oct. 17 -- The tragedy at Broad Peak on 30th July 2026, where a massive ice avalanche/landslide killed ten mountaineers, including the famous Nirmal Purja, or Nimsdai, has been in the headlines. A few weeks before that, similar landslides were reported across the Karakoram range. Netflix even re-released a documentary on Purja's extraordinary feat of having climbed the 14 peaks of over 8,000 metres in height, without oxygen, in less than seven months. The July 2026 expedition to Broad Peak was an effort to climb the 14 peaks a second time without oxygen. In his characteristic style, Purja had remarked before the climb: "Broad Peak, I ask for nothing but safe passage up and back down."
I recalled climate scientist David Stainforth's explanation that the Earth's climate was in a 'transient' phase and was moving rapidly from one phase to another, without settling into an equilibrium. And that this was happening at an unprecedented speed because of the relentless and continuing rise in greenhouse gas emissions. I tried to link this 'transience' to the Broad Peak tragedy and was surprised (and even worried) at how well it fitted. This transient nature of climate change manifests itself everywhere: from the oceans to the atmosphere and even the high mountain ranges of the Himalayas and Karakoram. If this is so, it is perhaps time that high-peak expedition managers ran various scenarios, revised their 'worst-case scenarios' and accordingly tweaked their standard operating procedures. Let us discuss the possible high-altitude climate changes that may be occurring and what mitigating steps we can take.
Unpredictable High-Altitude Climate
On 30th July 2026, a massive avalanche struck at 9.30 am local time when a large cornice or serac broke away from a snowy rib above Camp 3 on Broad Peak. At this time, the ten climbers (in four teams) were between Camp 2 and Camp 3 on Broad Peak. The deluge was of such a magnitude that no escape was possible, and all ten climbers, including Nirmal Purja, were swept away and fell hundreds of metres to their deaths. Some of their bodies fell into remote and inaccessible areas. That the avalanche occurred during a climbing window, when most expeditions take place, was surprising. It also tells us that no window is safe, given the erratic weather patterns that climate change is triggering, particularly in high-altitude areas.
Before the 30th July tragedy, there had been heavy snowfall on a few occasions, and many other groups were preparing to return by 25th July. Purja and his team from Elite Exped, along with other groups, however, continued to stay and decided to make an attempt on the morning of 30th July.
In the context of climate change, it is well known that the higher reaches of the Western Himalayas are also warming, and the assured hard snowpacks, so essential for climbing, are no longer guaranteed. This warming leads to unstable glacial morphology and disturbs cornices and seracs, as was the case in the Broad Peak incident. Local warming, as well as warming across Asia, leads to higher levels of moisture being pushed towards the Himalayas from the Arabian Sea. This results in erratic snowfall even during the 'safe window' periods.
In addition to Stainforth's 'transient climate', where past patterns fail, this is also an illustration of the 'pattern effects' proposed by Armour and Rugenstein, which we had discussed in an earlier article. We may recall that the pattern effects involved studying the warming of the western Pacific Ocean's surface and the resultant impact on global atmospheric circulation. In the present case, warmer seas have pushed more moisture into the atmosphere, which is channelled by wind corridors into the Himalayas. The warming oceans also disturb the jet stream currents in the Karakoram, which keep the summer months stable and provide a safe window for climbers. The consequence is erratic and untimely heavy snowfall, which is very different from the usual alpine powdery snow that compacts easily.
Conclusion
The Broad Peak tragedy showed us that even the best and most elite climbers are helpless in the face of nature's fury, which has become increasingly unpredictable in the face of climate change. It also told us that the institutional knowledge accumulated through years of mountaineering experience by local Sherpas and professional climbers can also lose its relevance in the face of a 'transient climate' and the pattern effects discussed above. It is time for mountaineers to reassess past practices and rely more on empirical findings. For example, it may be a good idea to push the climbing season further towards the winter months, when, at least, the snow is more likely to be stable, compact and firm.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.