New Delhi, Sept. 23 -- A developing Super El Niño could lead to around 4.51 lakh additional deaths from extreme heat worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a new estimate by the Climate Impact Lab. India is projected to account for about 15,800 of these additional heat-related deaths during the six-month period, with an uncertainty range of around 1,600 deaths. The estimate compares expected heat-related mortality during the El Niño period with what researchers would expect in an average year, using 1996-2025 as the baseline.
The projections come as El Niño conditions continue to strengthen in the Pacific. The climate phenomenon is associated with higher global temperatures and can influence rainfall and extreme-weather patterns in different regions. For India, the projected impact is particularly notable because a significant share of the estimated additional deaths is expected during the country's winter months. According to the study, nearly half of India's projected additional heat-related deaths could occur between December and February.
The Climate Impact Lab estimate covers additional mortality linked specifically to the extra heat associated with the developing El Niño. It does not represent deaths that have already occurred or a count of all heat-related deaths expected during the period. The report comes as climate scientists warn that the current El Niño could become exceptionally strong. Earlier forecasts indicated that the event could intensify through late 2026 and continue into early 2027.
India's weather authorities have also said El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen during the October-December period and could reach the very strong category. However, the India Meteorological Department has noted that there is no officially defined category called "Super El Niño"; El Niño events are generally classified according to the strength of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific. El Niño can have a warming effect globally and is generally associated with reduced monsoon rainfall over India, although its precise impact depends on several interacting oceanic and atmospheric factors.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.