New Delhi, Sept. 1 -- India's economy may be displaying considerable resilience, but an old vulnerability is again threatening to test it. The Finance Ministry's latest Monthly Economic Review has flagged an intensifying El Niño as a risk to agricultural production and inflation, particularly as its effects could extend into the upcoming rabi season. The warning comes after August recorded a 16 per cent rainfall deficit and the India Meteorological Department forecast below-normal rainfall for September. India has travelled a considerable distance in agricultural production, technology and food security, yet the fortunes of millions of farmers remain disproportionately tied to the behaviour of the monsoon.
The vulnerability is hardly new. Large parts of Indian agriculture remain rain-fed, making not merely the quantum but also the timing and geographical distribution of rainfall crucial. A weak monsoon can reduce yields, while prolonged dry spells followed by intense rainfall can be equally destructive. The consequences travel far beyond farms. Lower production of pulses, oilseeds and vegetables can push up food prices, squeeze household budgets, weaken rural consumption and eventually complicate monetary policy. El Niño therefore represents not simply an agricultural risk but a broader economic one. The government has recognised the immediate challenge, updating district-level contingency plans, promoting short-duration and low-water crops and reviewing preparedness with states. Such measures are necessary, but recurring weather emergencies cannot perpetually be addressed through contingency planning.
The larger task is to make agriculture structurally less vulnerable to climate variability. Irrigation expansion remains essential, but building canals and extracting groundwater cannot constitute the entire answer. Micro-irrigation, watershed restoration, rainwater harvesting and more efficient management of existing reservoirs require much greater emphasis. Crop choices must increasingly reflect local water availability rather than incentives that encourage water-intensive cultivation in unsuitable regions. Agricultural research must simultaneously accelerate the development and adoption of drought-, heat- and flood-tolerant varieties. Weather forecasting has improved substantially, but its value ultimately depends on whether a farmer receives reliable, localised and actionable advice before deciding when and what to sow.
Insurance must form another pillar of climate resilience. Crop insurance can protect incomes after disaster strikes, but delayed assessments and payments diminish its effectiveness. Technology should permit faster loss estimation and settlement while ensuring that small and tenant farmers are adequately covered. Equally important is strengthening storage, procurement and food buffers so that a climatic shock does not automatically become an inflationary shock.
Climate change is making the old assumption of a broadly predictable monsoon increasingly unreliable. India cannot control El Niño, but it can determine how severely El Niño affects its farmers and economy. After decades of agricultural modernisation, success should no longer be measured merely by record harvests in favourable years. The real test is whether Indian agriculture can withstand an unfavourable year without pushing farmers into distress or consumers towards higher prices. Climate-proofing agriculture must move from emergency preparedness to permanent policy.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.