New Delhi, July 6 -- In the very recent past, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) witnessed a series of violent incidents following serious disturbances, making the situation very fragile and volatile. The extent of volatility was so high that Pakistan's security and political establishments seemed clueless about how to deal with the situation. Amid an uneasy calm, the ongoing PoK trouble continued for the second time within a year, led by the Joint Action Committee, which comprises individuals from different political backgrounds and varied sections of society. The unrest in this sensitive region had been building up for some time, largely unnoticed, and was initially driven by local socio-economic demands. However, it has now evolved into a broader movement, fundamentally involving the youth, who appear to be disillusioned with the prevailing system of governance.
Coincidentally, the State's unavoidable muscular response has exacerbated matters. Instead of addressing the protesters' grievances and attempting a political solution, the government chose to crack down, further fuelling public angst. Blacking out the news in the mainstream media did not stop information about the events from spreading through social media. As it is, the government has attributed the protests to a foreign conspiracy, which is a parochial view of the situation. In the past too, the Pakistan government had attributed the disturbances to India in an apparent bid to hide the ongoing dissent and growing internal problems. Threatening statements from government officials are also failing to defuse the situation.
It is relevant to mention that, three years ago, the people took to the streets to protest against the shortage of essential commodities and high electricity tariffs. The situation was brought under control when the administration accepted the people's demands, but other issues continued to simmer. Discontent rose with growing unemployment among the youth, and political manipulation was alleged. The demand for abolishing reserved seats in the PoK Assembly reflected the frustration of a large segment of the local population, who perceived that the government was being run from outside. These facts are well articulated in the leading Pakistani dailies, especially by noted columnist Zahid Hussain in Dawn, the most widely read English newspaper in Pakistan. Last year's protests in September and October compelled the government to negotiate with the protesters. Most of their demands were accepted, and the administration promised to implement them within a stipulated timeframe. These demands primarily focused on the provision of basic socio-economic facilities.
However, a major highlight was the call for the abolition of the refugee seats, which have long been used by Islamabad to manipulate the political system. The government now claims that it has accepted most of the 38 points raised by the protesters, and both Islamabad and the PoK governments promised to address the issue of reserved seats. However, more than eight months later, no progress has yet been made on this matter, with the simmering political discontent threatening to escalate. This development is now clearly visible.
Meanwhile, reports confirm that several law enforcement personnel and demonstrators were killed in the recent clashes, and the situation was still not under control, contrary to what Islamabad and the local authorities claim. The use of force could alienate the population in this extremely sensitive region, which has significant geopolitical implications for Pakistan. Unfortunately, those in power have yet to understand the gravity of the situation. Dawn also alleged in its recent editorial that a flawed electoral system has long been used to install compliant administrations or unseat those that have fallen out of favour. Under the PoK Interim Constitution of 1974, of the 45 directly elected seats, 33 fall within the geographical boundaries of PoK, while 12 seats are reserved for Kashmiri refugees residing in Pakistan. Six of these 12 seats are allocated to refugees from Jammu, while the remaining six are for refugees from the Indian side of the Kashmir Valley. Geographically, eight of these seats are for Kashmiris residing in Punjab, with the rest divided between Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). As is well known in PoK, the number of voters in an electoral constituency ranges from 70,000 to 130,000. In contrast, for the six seats reserved for Jammu refugees, the number of registered voters ranges from 37,000 to 110,000. The total number of voters in the six constituencies reserved for the Kashmir Valley is only 33,000, with individual constituencies having between 3,300 and 7,700 voters, according to the Election Commission's statistics from the 2021 elections.
Since these reserved seats lie outside the geographical and constitutional boundaries of PoK, their existence clashes with the fundamental structure of the Interim Constitution. Furthermore, elections for these seats are not conducted by the Election Commission of PoK but by the Election Commission of Pakistan through the respective provincial administrations, leaving no mechanism for accountability to the PoK Election Commission. Those elected to these reserved seats often lack any genuine stake in the region, and the seats typically go to the ruling party in Islamabad.
Complaints of fraudulent voting in these seats have also been persistent. In the current Assembly, the residency certificates of four out of the 12 members are reported to be questionable, and investigations are ongoing in the courts. Additionally, one member's State Subject Certificate has been declared fake by the Supreme Court, which ordered action, but no measures have yet been taken. Despite such doubtful credentials, members elected to these reserved seats play a crucial role in the formation of PoK governments, with many becoming ministers despite having no real connection to the region.
In light of these developments, it is not altogether surprising that whichever party is in power in Islamabad typically forms the government in PoK and is subsequently unseated with shifting political dynamics in Pakistan. This political manipulation is reflected in the fact that the region has had four Prime Ministers since the 2021 elections. Last week, the PoK Supreme Court upheld a reference filed by the PoK government, stating that the provision of reserved seats could only be altered through a constitutional amendment. When democratic recourse is closed off, people are left with little choice but to fight for their rights. No force can stop the power of the people, as reflected in the consistent reporting and commentary of the Pakistani mainstream media on this sensitive issue and related developments.
Judging by the recent developments in PoK, the situation appears highly combustible, with the people increasingly restive in their demand for justice and fair play. A single spark in this hypersensitive region could push the State into a precarious situation that may not be easy to contain.
Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.