JERUSALEM, Oct. 29 -- Israel faces three possible political scenarios following Tuesday's inconclusive parliamentary election, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, struggling to secure the support needed to form a government.
Exit polls indicated that neither leader's bloc had reached the 61-seat majority required in the 120-member Knesset, leaving the formation of the next government dependent on negotiations with smaller parties. The emerging possibilities include a minority government led by Eisenkot with outside support from Arab-led parties, a national unity arrangement between the two principal rivals, or another election if coalition negotiations fail. The Arab-led parties, projected to secure between 17 and 19 seats, have emerged as important players in the post-election calculations. Their support could determine whether Eisenkot can establish an alternative administration, although political differences within the opposition remain a major obstacle.
The Joint List and Ra'am performed more strongly than anticipated in exit polls, reflecting increased participation among Arab voters, who account for approximately 20 per cent of Israel's population. Both parties have indicated their willingness to support Eisenkot in some capacity, although the Joint List is unlikely to formally join a governing coalition. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, has expressed greater openness to cooperation. The party previously participated in Israel's governing coalition in 2021 under Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Netanyahu, however, has ruled out cooperation with Arab-led parties, limiting his options for securing additional parliamentary support. His existing alliance depends heavily on far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, which were projected to win a combined 13 seats, along with ultra-Orthodox political groups.
Eisenkot could attempt to form a minority government with external support from Arab-led parties, allowing his administration to take office without formally including them in the coalition. Under such an arrangement, Arab-led lawmakers could support the government during the parliamentary confidence vote or abstain, enabling Eisenkot to secure sufficient backing. However, the proposal faces resistance from sections of the opposition that remain reluctant to cooperate with Arab parties. Eisenkot has not committed to such an arrangement, although he has declared his intention to form the next government. The former military chief, who joined Netanyahu's war cabinet following the October 2023 Hamas attack before resigning eight months later, has campaigned on replacing the prime minister's leadership.
Another possibility involves a national unity government bringing Netanyahu and Eisenkot together under a power-sharing arrangement. Such an agreement would potentially provide a parliamentary majority without requiring the participation of Arab-led parties. However, it would likely require Netanyahu to abandon his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies, while Eisenkot would have to reconsider his opposition to serving alongside the incumbent prime minister. Israel previously witnessed a similar arrangement in 2020, when Netanyahu agreed to share power with Benny Gantz following three elections in less than a year. That agreement included a rotating premiership but collapsed after approximately one year, triggering another election.
Although Netanyahu and Eisenkot share several positions on national security, their political rivalry and disagreements over leadership remain substantial barriers to cooperation. If neither leader succeeds in assembling a government, Israel could face another parliamentary election, potentially early next year. The country experienced five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 amid repeated failures to establish stable governing coalitions. Under such circumstances, Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister until a new government takes office.
The political uncertainty comes amid continuing disagreements over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, demands for an investigation into the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and Israel's military policies in Gaza and the wider region. Eisenkot has pledged to end the longstanding exemptions from military service enjoyed by many ultra-Orthodox men, while Netanyahu's political alliances have depended partly on parties seeking to preserve them. President Isaac Herzog will consult political party leaders after the official election results are published before selecting a candidate to attempt government formation. Although the leader of the largest party is traditionally given the first opportunity, the President is not legally required to follow that convention.
The final election results were expected on Thursday or Friday, with their official publication scheduled for November 4. Until a governing majority emerges, Israel's political future will depend on whether rival parties can overcome their differences and negotiate an arrangement capable of securing parliamentary support.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.