New Delhi, Aug. 24 -- The country is heading towards its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with seasonal rainfall likely to end about 15 per cent below the long-term average, two senior weather department officials said. If realised, the June-September monsoon would record its lowest rainfall since 2009.
The projected shortfall is almost twice the 8 per cent deficit forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its initial outlook. India has already received 13% less rain than normal since June 1. Rainfall was 35.4 per cent below average in June, followed by a 1 per cent surplus in July, before the deficit widened again in August to 15 per cent.
A senior IMD official said the strengthening El Nino weather pattern was affecting the monsoon and could bring a double-digit rainfall deficit in September. The official said rainfall could reach only 85% of normal during the season. The IMD is expected to release its official September forecast at the end of August.
Most parts of India, except some eastern states, are expected to receive below-average rainfall next month. Poor rains during September, an important period for crop development, could affect yields of cotton, soybean, corn and pulses. Lower rainfall could also reduce soil moisture needed for winter crops such as wheat and rapeseed.
The monsoon supplies about 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall, making its performance important for farm output, rural incomes and food prices.
El Nino, marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is strengthening and is expected to intensify further in September. The climate pattern can reduce rainfall over India and has been associated with below-average monsoon rains in many previous years.
The monsoon may also begin withdrawing from northwestern India a few days earlier than usual in September unless another weather system develops. It normally starts retreating from the northwest around September 17 and withdraws from the country by mid-October.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.