NEW DELHI, Oct. 29 -- India could witness around 55,000 additional heat-related deaths between October 2026 and March 2027 as an unusually powerful El Nino intensifies, according to a new global mortality tracker that has raised concerns over the potential public health consequences of extreme temperatures.
The El Nino Heat Mortality Tracker, developed by the Climate Impact Lab, estimates that more than 3.73 lakh additional heat-related deaths could occur worldwide over the next six months, with developing countries expected to bear the greatest burden. India is projected to record the second-highest toll after Nigeria, where approximately 56,000 additional heat-related deaths are forecast. A substantial proportion of India's projected deaths could occur in March, when temperatures begin rising ahead of the summer season. The figures are model-based estimates of additional mortality associated with higher temperatures, rather than confirmed deaths or definitive predictions.
Global South faces greatest threat
The tracker identifies countries across Asia, Africa and South America as particularly vulnerable to the consequences of the developing El Nino event.
Apart from India and Nigeria, Indonesia could record approximately 29,000 additional heat-related deaths, while Brazil faces a projected toll of around 19,000. Across the entire period from June 2026 to March 2027, researchers estimate that approximately 8.57 lakh additional heat-related deaths could be associated with the unusually warm conditions. The estimates are based on temperature observations and seasonal forecasts, combined with research examining the relationship between daily temperatures and mortality across different regions.
Record warming raises concerns
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across the world. The current event has been described by some experts as a Super El Nino because of the exceptional warming recorded in the Pacific.
By September, temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific had risen 3.08 degrees Celsius above normal, according to the reported assessment. The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the current El Nino is the strongest since 1950 and could intensify further before reaching its expected peak in December. The phenomenon is expected to bring above-average temperatures to several regions while increasing the likelihood of droughts, floods and other weather-related disruptions.
Early warnings could reduce fatalities
The Climate Impact Lab's tracker provides estimates across approximately 3,700 subnational regions worldwide, allowing policymakers to identify areas where rising temperatures could pose the greatest threat to human life. Researchers believe that advance information about heat-related mortality risks could help governments strengthen public health preparedness and direct resources towards vulnerable communities.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the ability to anticipate the consequences of extreme heat represented an important advance in protecting populations. Preventive measures identified by researchers include heat early-warning systems, improved access to healthcare, drinking water facilities and cooling centres. The projections also highlight the importance of protecting people with limited access to cooling facilities and those exposed to prolonged outdoor temperatures.
India's risks could extend into summer
India's projected mortality burden is expected to increase towards March, indicating that the impact of elevated temperatures may become more pronounced as the country approaches the summer months.
The latest estimates are substantially higher than those released in September, partly because the updated forecast includes March and incorporates observed temperatures from August and September, which were warmer than previously anticipated. Researchers have cautioned that the figures could change as fresh observations and forecasts become available. The findings underline the need for early preparedness as El Nino continues to influence global weather conditions into 2027, with the potential to intensify heat-related health risks across vulnerable regions.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.