New Delhi, April 16 -- India's seasonal climate is undergoing a clear and accelerating shift, with rising temperatures becoming an expected feature rather than an exception. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi witnessed an unusually early onset of heat, with February recording temperatures well above the seasonal average and an earlier-than-usual retreat of winter. An analysis by Down To Earth shows that 27 of 36 monitored Indian cities recorded above-normal daytime temperatures during the first half of February 2026.
The city is now expected to reach highs of around 41degC in the latter half of April, as hot and humid conditions prevail across much of the country, indicating a broader climatic trend. Long-term data from the IMD also reinforces this trend. Ten of India's fifteen warmest years have occurred since 2011, with 2024 recorded as the warmest year, indicating a broader structural change in the country's climate system. The trend's implications are reflected by projections from the IMD, which forecast above-normal heatwave days from March to May this year.
Heat as a Structural Constraint on Productivity
Rising temperatures have a significant impact on labour productivity. Unlike many economic shocks that occur intermittently, heat imposes continuous losses, acting as a persistent constraint on economic activity by reducing work hours, particularly in physically demanding outdoor occupations, and thereby lowering income for daily-wage workers. By 2030, the World Bank estimates that heat and humidity could cost India up to 4.5 per cent of GDP (USD 150-250 billion) and contribute 34 million of the 80 million projected global heat-related job losses.
India's labour market is highly vulnerable to heat stress due to its occupational structure: about three-quarters of the workforce ~ around 380 million workers, mainly in agriculture and construction, are exposed. India already loses over 101 billion hours of labour annually due to extreme heat. Heat stress gradually erodes productivity through shorter workdays and reduced physical efficiency, rather than sudden disruptions. Over time, the cumulative impact of these daily losses can become economically significant at the national scale, highlighting how climate change subtly undermines overall economic output.
Agricultural Vulnerability and Food Security Risks
Agriculture represents another sector where rising temperatures can have immediate and measurable consequences. Heat can reduce yields by accelerating crop metabolism, threatening both domestic supply and export potential. For instance, the hot start to March was flagged as potentially affecting key wheat- and rapeseed-growing regions during the critical grain-filling stage. As the world's second-largest wheat producer and a major edible oil importer, India relies on strong harvests to stabilise food prices and reduce import dependence. However, recent history highlights this vulnerability: in 2022, a similar spell of unusually warm weather during February-March damaged wheat crops and prompted an export ban to stabilise supply. The heatwave reduced wheat yields by 15-25 per cent (up to 32-34 per cent in parts of Uttar Pradesh) and caused vegetable losses of 40-50 per cent in some areas, according to ICAR. Lower harvests reduce farm incomes, weaken rural consumption, and increase the cost of essential food items. These indirect impacts rarely receive as much attention as headline economic indicators but play an important role in shaping household financial stability.
Climate Stress and Migration Dynamics
Another dimension of rising temperatures involves population mobility. Research examining the relationship between climate variables and migration has consistently found that changes in temperature and precipitation influence out-migration patterns, particularly in agriculture-dependent regions. Even a 1degC increase has been associated with measurable increases in migration from rural areas. Heat stress reduces crop yields and income, prompting households to seek livelihoods in urban areas. This form of climate-related migration can generate complex socio-economic effects. Cities receiving migrants may experience intensified pressure on housing markets, transportation networks, water supply, and other forms of urban infrastructure. Labour markets can also become more competitive with limited opportunities in the formal sector, often pushing migrants into informal employment. Meanwhile, rural areas lose labour, weakening agricultural productivity and local economies, which can deepen regional inequalities and challenge long-term planning.
Health and Infrastructure Under Heat Stress
High temperatures can affect the human body through multiple physiological pathways, making heat stress a major environmental and occupational hazard. It is widely recognised as the leading cause of weather-related mortality worldwide. Heat exposure can lead to worsening of conditions like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, asthma, and mental health issues, and can lead to fatal heatstroke.
It also drives higher energy demand as people rely on fans and air conditioners, straining grids. While necessary for public safety and comfort, this increased energy consumption has environmental implications. Greater electricity generation, often from fossil fuel sources, leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions. A 2024 analysis found heatwaves raised peak electricity demand by nine per cent, increasing fossil-fuel generation and CO₂ emissions by 223 million tonnes. This dynamic creates a feedback loop in which rising temperatures increase cooling demand, which raises emissions and further accelerates climate change.
Policy Pathways for Heat Resilience
Addressing these risks requires coordinated action across sectors. Expanding urban Heat Action Plans in major cities, like in 2013, Ahmedabad developed South Asia's first-ever heat action plan with early warnings, cooling centres, and adjusted work schedules, to protect lives. Labour policies such as rest breaks, shaded worksites, and hydration reduce productivity losses, while climate-resilient agriculture, including heat-tolerant crops, efficient irrigation, and insurance, stabilises rural incomes and limits migration. The early warmth at the start of the year, followed by intensifying heat in April, goes beyond a transient seasonal pattern. It points to deeper climatic shifts affecting economic productivity, agricultural stability, migration patterns, public health, and energy systems, underscoring the need for both immediate adaptation and long-term planning. As heat extremes intensify, policy pathways must move toward proactive, systemic resilience embedded across sectors.
Views expressed are personal. The writer is working as a Junior Research Associate at Think Tank, Mobius Foundation, New Delhi
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.