New Delhi, Oct. 26 -- A princely state until 1949, Manipur has been gripped by prolonged unrest since May 3, 2023. The controversial Manipur Merger Agreement was signed on September 21, 1949, in Shillong between Maharaja Bodh Chandra Singh of Manipur and the Governor-General of India. The kingdom officially merged into the Indian Union as a Part-C state on October 15, 1949. However, the Raja reportedly signed the agreement under duress and without consulting the people, leaving the state a volatile zone of tension ever since.

The Central Government's recent decision to extend "disturbed area" status under the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) across most of Manipur for another six months-excluding areas under 13 police stations-has reignited a crucial national debate. The extension is significant because AFSPA grants broad extraordinary powers to armed forces operating within a notified disturbed area. This decision offers a clear indication that the Centre continues to view Manipur as fundamentally unstable.

Highlighting unresolved historical grievances, seven banned armed groups recently revived the debate surrounding Manipur's merger with the Indian Union, calling for a 24-hour shutdown on October 15, 2026, to observe the anniversary of the merger as a "Black Day."

Concurrently, certain civil society organisations representing Meitei groups have reacted strongly to the dismissal of Professor and Congress MP Bimol Akoijam, demanding an "end to political theatrics and media trials." Together, these developments have further complicated the fragile political and ethnic landscape in Manipur.

A crisis as deeply rooted as Manipur's cannot be resolved through military force alone. Persistent violence along the Myanmar border underscores the limits of attempting to maintain state control solely through heavy-handed measures. As the Supreme Court of India has previously mandated, "disturbed area" declarations require strict, periodic reviews-reaffirming that exceptional military powers must never become a permanent substitute for normal civil administration.

Historical Fault Lines and Ethnic Dynamics

Manipur's population comprises three major communities: the Meiteis, the Nagas, and the Kuki-Zomis. Geographically, the Meiteis inhabit the central Imphal Valley, while the Nagas and Kukis reside in the surrounding hill districts. This hill-valley divide is rooted in centuries of history and was further entrenched by British colonial policy, which institutionalised a governance model that deepened spatial and political segregation.

Historically, the majority Meiteis held central political authority. To create a buffer against Naga raids, Meitei monarchs encouraged Kuki settlements in the hills. Over time-particularly with the rise of the Naga insurgency and demands for a separate Nagalim-these mixed hill regions became fierce battlegrounds for territorial control among tribal groups.

This complex historical evolution created deep political and social fractures:

* Asymmetric Governance: While the hill areas constitute the vast majority of the state's geographical area, the Imphal Valley accounts for 40 of the 60 Legislative Assembly seats, ensuring political dominance for the Meitei community.

* Economic Disparities: Non-valley communities frequently allege that development funds are disproportionately allocated to the valley, fueling long-standing tribal resentment.

* Demographic Anxiety: Demographics have become a core driver of tension. Higher population growth rates in the hills (as reflected in the 2011 Census) alongside cross-border migration from neighbouring Myanmar have intensified competition over land, economic opportunities, and political leverage.

The Catalysts of Recent Violence

The fragile peace was shattered in May 2023 following a Manipur High Court directive suggesting the inclusion of the Meitei community in the Scheduled Tribe (ST) category.

* Tribal Apprehensions: The recommendation triggered widespread anxiety among tribal communities, particularly the Kuki-Zomis. They feared that granting ST status to the valley-dwelling majority would enable Meiteis to purchase land in protected hill districts, thereby eroding tribal land rights, safeguards, and employment quotas.

* Distrust in Governance: Tensions were further exacerbated by state-led drives to identify and evict illegal immigrants from forest reserves, coupled with proposals for a National Register of Citizens (NRC). Tribal groups perceived these measures as selective targeting.

What began as peaceful protests quickly degenerated into full-blown ethnic clashes. The ensuing violence resulted in tragic loss of life, widespread property destruction, and the internal displacement of tens of thousands of citizens. Over time, the situation worsened as local law enforcement and civil institutions fractured along ethnic lines, severely eroding public trust in the state apparatus.

The Road Ahead: Restoring Trust and Governance

Events over the past decade demonstrate that a mere change in leadership or political reshuffling will not deliver lasting peace. Military enforcement under AFSPA cannot serve as a surrogate for democratic governance; a multi-faceted, inclusive strategy is urgently required.

1. Rebuilding Administrative Trust: The state must rebuild neutral, professional law enforcement. Security agencies must be seen as impartial guardians rather than partisans in an ethnic struggle.

2. High-Level Outreach and Engagement: High-profile visits-including Prime Minister Narendra Modi's outreach to both Churachandpur and Imphal-along with initial development packages are positive steps. However, financial aid alone cannot bridge deep political divides.

3. Addressing Core Grievances Through Dialogue: A sustained, neutral dialogue platform must be established to reconcile the conflicting demands of all stakeholders:

* Kuki-Zo Demands: Addressing requirements for political autonomy, administrative security, and protection against land disenfranchisement.

* Meitei Demands: Addressing legitimate concerns regarding border security, territorial integrity, and the tracking of illegal immigration.

4. Institutional Restraint: Democratic processes must be restored. State mechanisms must exercise institutional restraint, recognising that historical sensitivities cannot be suppressed through coercion.

Reclaiming peace in Manipur requires moving beyond military containment toward genuine reconciliation, transparent governance, and an equitable constitutional framework that honours the rights and aspirations of both the valley and the hills.

Views expressed are personal. JF Raj is the VC, PK Datta is an Adjunct Professor at St Xavier's University, Kolkata

Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.