New Delhi, Nov. 9 -- The world is heading towards another year of record-breaking heat, with 2026 likely to rank among the four warmest years since observations began, as rising greenhouse gas concentrations and an intensifying El Nino drive global temperatures higher, according to a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report.
The global average temperature between January and September 2026 stood at 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, measured against the 1850-1900 average. The figure was higher than the full-year averages recorded in 2025 and 2023, and only marginally below the record set in 2024, the WMO said.
Temperatures could climb further before the year ends as El Nino strengthens. The warming phenomenon has been intensifying since August and is expected to become the strongest on record by December.
The findings were published in the WMO's State of the Climate Report on Friday, coinciding with the opening of COP31, the United Nations climate meeting in Antalya, Turkiye.
WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said the latest figures reflected a sustained period of rising temperatures and ocean warming.
"The past four years have been the warmest in the 177-year observational record, and the heat in the oceans is breaking records for the tenth year in a row," she said.
"The ongoing El Nino is forecast to be one of the strongest on record, and the heat it releases from the ocean will continue to fuel high temperatures and extreme weather into 2027," she added.
The report attributed the accelerating warming to a growing imbalance in the Earth's energy system. Greenhouse gases are trapping increasing amounts of heat, disrupting the balance between energy received from the Sun and energy released back into space. The imbalance has reached its highest level since monitoring began.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rose 53 per cent from approximately 278 parts per million in 1750 to 426.8 ppm in 2025. Methane concentrations increased 167 per cent over the same period, from 729 parts per billion to 1,948 ppb.
The oceans, which absorb 90 per cent of excess heat, are also experiencing sustained warming. The report said 2026 was on course to become the tenth consecutive year of record ocean temperatures.
The consequences are already being felt across regions, with extreme weather damaging livelihoods, worsening food insecurity, deepening poverty and forcing displacement. Preliminary estimates put excess deaths from European heatwaves, droughts and wildfires at more than 30,000. In India, an estimated 146.5 million people were exposed to extreme heat during an April 2026 heatwave.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, "We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Nino is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising."
He called on world leaders to accelerate emissions reductions, move towards a just transition from fossil fuels and provide vulnerable countries with the finance and protection they need, warning that "those least responsible are suffering first and worst."
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.