Kuala Lampur, July 14 -- Over the weekend, the Johor election saw Barisan Nasional winning 48 of the 56 seats in the State Assembly. Pakatan Harapan secured eight, of which six were won by the DAP and one each by Parti Keadilan Rakyat and Amanah. In the immediate aftermath, some have interpreted the result as evidence that BN has regained strong momentum ahead of GE16.

But Malaysian electoral history cautions us against drawing a straight line from one election to the next. We only need to look back four years ago. Then, BN too, recorded convincing victories in the Malacca state election in November 2021 and the Johor state election in March 2022. Many interpreted those results as evidence that BN had regained its dominance and was on co...