Kuala Lampur, July 3 -- There is a comforting fantasy that wars begin with explosions.

A missile streaks across a black sky. Fighter jets scream overhead. Television anchors put on grave faces. Maps appear. Generals point at coastlines with laser pens. Somebody says "the situation is developing rapidly," which is television language for: nobody knows what the hell is happening.

But the most consequential victories are often won long before the first shot is fired.

They are won in meeting rooms. In delayed arms sales. In vague statements about "stability." In trade concessions, diplomatic silences and political whispers carefully planted in the minds of nervous voters: Are you sure America will come? Are you sure this fight is worth hav...