SriLanka, June 8 -- The Hormuz strait closure created a logistical supply shock but does not alter the direction of the market, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. A rapid production recovery in the region, strong non-OPEC growth and potentially more aggressive OPEC policy are likely to re-establish oversupply in 4Q26 and drive prices lower once the strait reopens.
Our base case Brent oil price of USD87 a barrel (bbl) on average for 2026 reflects our assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen around the end of July, implying an effective five-month closure. The uncertainty remains high regarding the timing of Hormuz reopening and the risk to oil price is binary.
The current price spike reflects a temporary logistical supply shock ra...