New Delhi, April 8 -- India's monsoon rainfall this year is likely to be below normal at around 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of ±5%, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said on Tuesday, flagging the return of El Niño as a key risk to the June-September season. The LPA for the four-month monsoon season is 868.6mm. The forecast carries significant economic implications. Monsoon is the lifeblood of India's economy. According to the agriculture ministry, 51% of India's farmed area is rain-fed. With 47% of the country's population dependent on agriculture for livelihood, a below-par monsoon can dampen rural consumption and push up food prices in a year when the conflict in West Asia threatens to pose a larger threat to energy availability and fertilisers - a critical farm input. P7...