India, July 14 -- The battlelines are drawn, major poll issues defined and political loyalties of major caste blocs largely settled for the forthcoming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh early 2027. But the poll picture is still hazy because two castes holding veto power are indecisive and vulnerable. They are the Brahmins and Dalits, particularly Jatavs. Election data, coupled with their political behaviour, indicates the significant role they will play in deciding the next ruler. The simmering anger among Brahmins and the shift of Jatavs to the INDIA bloc in the 2024 elections are notable. Both can derail the BJP's electoral plans. Poll managers are not overly worried about the rebelling Brahmins for two reasons: one, they can be mollified, second they have limited political options. But Dalits, especially Jatavs, would be hard to please. They continue to mistrust BJP and also have many political options to explore in 2027. To check the recurrence of the 2024 damage in the 2027 polls-when the BJP's wins tumbled in the general elections-the NDA government is supposedly toying with an idea of playing an emotional card by accepting the long-pending demand for the Bharat Ratna for Kanshi Ram, the second tallest Dalit leader after BR Ambedkar. It is the timing of the announcement that is being debated. Should it be before 2027 Uttar Pradesh and Punjab elections or the 2029 Lok Sabha polls. Kanshi was born in Punjab but worked in Uttar Pradesh. Earlier, the Bharat Ratna and other awards were announced before the 2019 and 2024 general elections. However, 2027 polls are crucial to win 2029 also as the electoral setback here in 2024 had a direct bearing on the BJP's overall performance-it fell short of the majority mark in Parliament. Otherwise also, the BJP's numbers have consistently declined in the state assembly polls after 2017. Doesn't the road to power go via UP? Kanshi Ram died in 2006. Mayawati, who succeeded him as national president of the BSP, has repeatedly demanded the Bharat Ratna for her mentor since 2008. She had then tweeted, "It would be appropriate if the founder of the BSP, Manyavar Kanshi Ram, who dedicated his entire life to uplift the oppressed people of the Bahujan Samaj, is honoured with the Bharat Ratna without any further delay and as per the wish of the crores of his followers across the country." She reiterated the demand in 2024 also when Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav and several others had joined the bandwagon. Not many may remember that the demand for Bharat Ratna for two Dalit icons - former deputy prime minister Jagjivan Ram and BSP founder president Kanshi Ram-was raised in the BJP also way back in 2013 by the then national president of their Dalit Morcha Dr Sanjay Paswan. Rajnath Singh was the BJP's national president. Paswan had hung the portraits of Jagjivan Ram and Kanshi Ram in his Delhi office after his appointment as national president of the BJP's Dalit Morcha. This triggered a huge controversy because mutual mistrust existed between the BSP and BJP, perhaps driven by their sour experiences of sharing power in Uttar Pradesh. Paswan faced protests during his visit to Kanshi Ram's ancestral village. "After the end of BR Ambedkar's era, another phase had started with the two iconic leaders, Jagjivan Ram and Kanshi Ram. While Jagjivan Ram never lost an election, Kanshi Ram propelled the daughter of a Dalit (Dalit Beti) to the position of the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. They must get their due recognition," Paswan said. He has not stopped raising the demand at all meetings of the BJP and the Sangh. Much water has flowed down the Ganga and the Yamuna since Kanshi Ram pursued anti-upper caste politics. He galvanised the Bahujan Samaj, which he said comprised 85% of the state's population. He formed the BSP in April 1984. His politics was provocative, experimental and abrasive. His dream of a Dalit prime minister died along with him but the aspirations that he fired continues to burn. He is being invoked today for empowering Dalits more than for his aggressive language against powerful leaders of all parties. Recently, on July 7, Ashok Bharti, the chairman of the National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organization (NACDOR), wrote on X, "Elections in UP and Punjab are drawing close. Just as in Bihar, right before the elections, Jannayak Karpoori Thakur was awarded the Bharat Ratna, my assessment is that we may hear the announcement of conferment of Bharat Ratna on Kanshi Ram saheb." Often awards are conferred on political leaders, including known political opponents, for political reasons as this sends a message to their constituency and allures them. But not every time the party in power reaps the electoral dividend. Here are two instances with contrary political implications: the Bharat Ratna to Jat leader and former Prime Minister Charan Singh, and the Padma Vibhushan to Samajwadi Party founder-president Mulayam Singh Yadav in 2023-24. The politics of both leaders had prospered on anti-BJPism. While the BJP gained support from Jats along with an alliance with their Rashtriya Lok Dal -as its leader and Charan Singh's grandson Jayant Chaudhury, snapped ties with the SP and joined the NDA-the Padma Vibhushan awarded to Mulayam Singh Yadav did not attract his core voters of Yadavs and Muslims towards the BJP. Similarly, awards conferred on socialist leader Karpoori Thakur and former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao on the Congress did not help the BJP gain brownie points in their respective states of Bihar and Andhra Pradesh. In fact, more than political gains, the award to Rao was aimed at rubbing salt into Sonia Gandhi's wounds. Everyone knew how upset she had been with Rao over tardy progress in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case. Who would gain if Kanshi Ram is conferred with the Bharat Ratna? Observers feel the move may soften but not shift Jatavs to the BJP. The gainer would be Mayawati, if she takes an active plunge into the electoral arena or joins INDIA by default. They are not averse to the Congress and Akhilesh is giving them due representation to win their support. The party high command knows the BJP would not win brownie points in UP. But Punjab may respond differently, so will other states. Kanshi Ram was a national figure. As of now, it's time for political calculations and assessment. Dalits form 21% of the state's population of whom 56% belong to Mayawati's caste - Jatavs. Of the remaining, 33% comprises Pasis, Dhobis and Koris. They have moved with political parties and are thus quite vulnerable and may flow with the tide....