Weaponising energy supplies
India, April 17 -- US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the US will not extend the temporary sanctions waiver it announced after the war in West Asia began. It is difficult to say whether Bessent (or his president) really means this or if they are using it to pressure the Iranian regime in the ongoing negotiations. Given that Donald Trump has announced a blockade of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran continues to export oil, the signalling aspect of the announcement cannot be ruled out. Last year, Trump unfairly imposed an additional duty of 25% on India for importing Russian oil and claimed that this was intended to put pressure on Russia.
Buying things under US sanctions requires more than an assertion of national sovereignty. Thanks to the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency, US financial sanctions carry serious economic costs for not just buying parties but also financial intermediaries. Unless the war ends, the production of petroleum and operations of petrochemical facilities in West Asia return to normal, and ships are free to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, shutting off Iranian and Russian oil supplies will only worsen what is already the worst energy supply shock in the history of modern capitalism. Things are so bad that securing supplies and not paying a higher price have become a primary concern for many countries. This supply shock would not have happened had the war not started. For all of its problems with Israel, the US, and even other Islamic West Asian neighbours, Iran had never disrupted traffic in the Strait.
If the US were to indeed add to the oil supply shock instead of resolving it, it would only add to the recklessness of the Trump administration. Thanks to its self-sufficiency in fossil fuels, the US is immune to the supply shock component of the energy crisis currently playing out in the world. Of course, consumers there will have to pay higher prices as well. The rest of the world, India included, cannot do much to influence Trump's policies . But the costs they are paying because of them are real, huge, and painful. If the energy supply shock were to persist, the adverse effects would be very large. The rest of the world's inability to rein in Trump notwithstanding, there is definitely a mark-to-market process happening vis-a-vis the US's palatability, utility, and necessity as an ally for many countries....
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