verdict day
New Delhi, May 4 -- Votes across 823 seats in four states and a Union territory will be counted on Monday to determine the winners of assembly polls marked by record turnouts on the back of mass deletions of names from voter rolls and high-stakes contests with wider national political ramifications.
Counting will begin at 8am in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry in what will be the single biggest day of election results since the 2024 polls. Three of the states - Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala - have never seen a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government and represent the final frontier for the party.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) rules Assam and hopes to return to power for a third consecutive time; in Puducherry, it is attempting a second straight shot at forming the government. The elections are also a test of survival for regional leaders Mamata Banerjee who is seeking a fourth straight term, MK Stalin who is seeking a second consecutive term, and Pinarayi Vijayan who is seeking a third back-to-back term.
Counting will begin at 8am with postal ballots, followed by electronic voting machine counting at 8.30 am, with results updated in real time on ECINET and the official election portal. Votes will also be counted in bypolls for eight assembly seats across five states.
According to EC data, the two-phase Bengal polls saw a record turnout of 93.05%, the highest in the state's history. The elections were marked by the mass disenfranchisement of all but 1,600-odd people among the 2.71 million people flagged under the controversial logical discrepancy category in the special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, also a dubious milestone in independent India's history. Exit polls predict that the BJP is on course for a historic victory in a state defined by Banerjee's dominance over the last 15 years. Both the BJP and the TMC have claimed that the high turnout will help them.
West Bengal chief electoral officer (CEO) Manoj Kumar Agarwal said that all arrangements have been made for a peaceful and transparent counting process. "The counting of votes will be conducted in a free and fair manner. We are fully prepared; there will be no unrest anywhere. Tomorrow's counting will take place peacefully," Agarwal told reporters.
Ahead of counting day, security has been intensified across West Bengal, including outside strongrooms in Kolkata. Forces are deployed outside key locations such as Sakhawat Memorial Government Girls' High School in Bhabanipur and Netaji Indoor Stadium, especially after late-night protests by Banerjee and TMC leaders last week. Security has also been strengthened outside the chief electoral officer's office, while additional forces have been deployed in sensitive constituencies, including Falta, where repolling was ordered across all booths for May 21.
ECI has also put in place a multi-layered security system for counting centres, including a 100-metre security perimeter, state armed police at entry points, and central armed police forces guarding counting halls and strongrooms. For the first time, a QR code-based Photo Identity Card system through ECINET has been introduced for authorised personnel, including officials, candidates, agents and staff.
The poll body has scaled down the number of counting centres this year to 77 from 87 announced earlier, and 108 in 2021, while putting in place a multi-layered security grid. "Comprehensive security arrangements have been made to ensure that counting is conducted in a peaceful, transparent and orderly manner," a senior EC official said. ECI has deployed 165 additional counting observers and 77 police observers. It has introduced stringent access control measures at the counting centres, including banning mobile phones except for returning officers and observers.
In Tamil Nadu, the polls saw a turnout of 85.10% with exit polls predicting a break in the state's usual Dravidian duopoly with the entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay. Most exit polls predict that the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) will return to power but one agency forecast that Vijay's Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam could end up as the single-largest party ahead of the DMK, with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) a distant third. "All arrangements are in place, including a comprehensive three-tier security plan, for counting of votes at the 62 designated counting centres, chief electoral officer Archana Patnaik said. Approximately 125,000 personnel, which includes officials and micro-observers on vote-counting duty and police, have been deployed.
As many as 234 counting halls have been arranged for EVMs. An additional 240 halls have been designated for the counting of postal ballots and electronically transmitted postal ballots (ETPBs). A total of 10,545 counting personnel have been drafted for counting duty, supported by 4,624 micro-observers. ECI has deputed 234 Counting Observers, one for each Assembly constituency, to oversee the counting proceedings.
In Kerala, the only state ruled by the Left in the country, exit polls predict a victory for the Congress-led United Democratic Front, though one agency has forecast a tight contest and a possible hung assembly. The polls saw 78.27% turnout. A defeat for CM Vijayan will mark the first time since the 1960s that Left parties are not in power in any state. There are 140 counting centres across 43 locations. Officials said that 15,464 personnel were deployed for the exercise, comprising 140 returning officers, 1,340 additional returning officers, 4,208 micro observers, 4,208 counting supervisors, and 5,563 counting assistants. Twenty five companies of central forces were deployed alongside state police personnel to guard the counting centres. The NDA, although not in contention to form the government, views the election as crucial to expanding its footprint in Kerala after failing to win any seats in 2021.
In Assam, exit polls are unanimous in predicting a landslide victory for chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in elections that saw 85.96% turnout. Twenty-five companies of Central Armed Police Forces were deployed to guard the counting centres and the strongrooms. Two additional CAPF companies will be kept on static duty, while 93 companies of state armed police have been deployed in the districts, officials said.
And in Puducherry, exit polls predict a return for the NDA. Counting of votes will also be held for Ponda in Goa, Bagalkot and Davnagere South in Karnataka, Koridang in Nagaland, Dharmanagar in Tripura, Umreth in Gujarat, and Rahuri and Baramati in Maharashtra. These elections will have ramifications that will resonate far beyond Kolkata or Chennai, Guwahati or Thiruvananthapuram. For the NDA, it is an opportunity to win territories that have traditionally not warmed up to its ideological or electoral appeal. It will set the mood for a clutch of key assembly polls next spring and can steady the hand of PM Narendra Modi amid great international turbulence.
For the Opposition, the elections offer a chance to stem the tide of losses that followed its stellar performance in the 2024 general elections and win major states with enormous political heft. Five years ago, blockbuster victories in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Bengal boosted the Opposition and carried it through two subsequent years of electoral drubbing. Retaining control this time is key for an Opposition struggling with a shrinking national footprint....
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