Unpredictability is the new norm
India, July 9 -- Grief has a logic of its own. During the Trojan War, Troy's King Priam, lamenting his heroic son Hector's death at the hands of Greek hero Achilles, meets the latter - who is also in mourning for his friend Patroclus - during a temporary ceasefire between their armies. Both the Greeks and the Trojans decide to honour their fallen warriors through funerary games, taking a break from a war already in its 12th year. Priam and Achilles, though being on the opposite sides, recognise and acknowledge each other's grief, treat each other with honour, and, smartly, terminate that encounter before vengeance overpowers the shared sense of loss.
Cut to today, as Iran mourns its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, killed in Israel-US strikes on February 28, in a dramatic spectacle of collective grief and nationalism, neither virtue nor peace stands a chance. The hard-earned Iran-US ceasefire has been laid to rest much before the Ayatollah, whose death has become an existential issue for the country. Is ran making a mistake by letting passions rise unchecked? Is revenge really the best way for Iran to counter US President Donald Trump's aggressive talk (he has already termed the ceasefire dead, following Iran's actions)? While Iran may have been correct in rejecting a one-sided peace agreement and havingits own demands recognised before the signing ofthe peace pact on June 17, its current belligerenceis unjustified. But when deaths become totems,logic is buried first.
The unpredictability in the region, that barely breathed easy with a cautious circulation of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, can now be seen as a norm not an aberration. Whether Iran is overplaying its handby provoking the US and its allies will be decided in future. Meanwhile, there is no denying that the restof the world must brace itself for an era of slow-burning fires which can singe economies. How the rest of the world deals with a clash of Trump's unpredictability and the Islamic regime's existential and civilisational ego will depend on agility, preparedness, and a dash of luck.
India has weathered the energy supply storm well so far but a continued conflict in West Asia has the capacity to derail every long- or medium-term plan. This holds true for every other country, including the US. Instead of expending time and resources on any peace-brokering efforts, it will be pertinent for global players to plan for the unplanned....
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