The reminder from realpolitik
India, Oct. 13 -- The bypoll results for five assembly constituencies (AC) and one parliamentary constituency (PC) were released on a day Delhi was put under an unprecedented clampdown to prevent the October 10 protests. At a time when political coverage and commentary is being dominated by an extra-parliamentary drama, the bypoll results are a good reminder of how elections can differ from what seems immediately pressing and fascinating in politics. All six elections were won by the ruling party.
In West Bengal, the results have only worsenedthe crisis for the previous incumbent Trinamool Congress which has already suffered a split afterits loss. If the results are any indication, it might struggle to even retain the primary oppositionparty status in the state. The sheer scale of the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) victory in Nandigram and Rejinagar ACs also underlines the fact thatWest Bengal has, once again embraced theparty-society model where the ruling party enjoys more than a fair advantage.
In Tamil Nadu, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has won the two ACs which were vacated by the resignation of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) MLAs. So far, it seems to be the AIADMK and not the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) which is losing ground to theTVK since the May elections. But even this is goingto be enough to give the TVK a decisive edgevis-a-vis the DMK. The assembly results were nota fluke is the key message.
Assam has continued with its trend of the Congress ceding further ground to the BJP. In Nagaon, the Congress could not even finish second in a PC it had won with 50% vote share in 2024. The Congress in Assam now risks losing even Muslim votes to the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), a party the Congress had completely marginalised in the 2024 and even 2026 elections in the state.
Now, one can argue that incumbents, that too so close to their last victory, will have a natural advantage in bypolls and one should not make too much of the results. The argument is perhaps fair. But the results should serve as a cautionary note to anybody who is in a haste to see the ongoing protests as a pre-ordained, decisive headwind for the BJP. In realpolitik, entrenched local factors might prove to be as significant as the emerging hyperlocal protests....
इस लेख के रीप्रिंट को खरीदने या इस प्रकाशन का पूरा फ़ीड प्राप्त करने के लिए, कृपया
हमे संपर्क करें.