The Congress's limited win
India, May 29 -- The much-anticipated transition of power in Karnataka must be a red-letter day for the Congress leadership, which has finally managed to stave off a brewing rebellion in a state after successive failures to anticipate the quantum of resentment in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and losing its government or elections in all three provinces. In Punjab, the leadership gambled by pushing out then chief minister (CM) Amarinder Singh months before the 2022 assembly polls, then seemed to throw its weight behind Navjot Singh Sidhu, only to eventually appoint Charanjit Singh Channi, and saw its campaign come undone in the elections. Which is why the developments in Karnataka are significant; the party's leadership appears to have shaken off its reticence and made a decision, asking CM Siddaramaiah to step aside in favour of his deputy and longstanding challenger, DK Shivakumar.
But implementing the decision is only half the battle. Elections are due in Karnataka in roughly two years, and the Congress has not won back-to-back assembly elections in any state since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept to power at the Centre in 2014. After winning the most impressive mandate in Karnataka in a generation in 2023, the Congress administration has been mired in a perennial see-saw of will-he-won't-he amid speculation that the leadership had brokered a 2.5-year-term-each truce between the two leaders. Governance and coordination between departments has been the casualty. Moreover, the Congress will have to keep Siddaramaiah on board. The 77-year-old veteran is not just the longest-serving CM of the state but also is the man who built a grassroots coalition of backward classes, Dalits, and Muslims, and went toe-to-toe with BJP stalwart BS Yeddyurappa. For a party whose support is spread evenly across the state - instead of being concentrated in pockets, an advantage in a first-past-the-post system - the Congress cannot afford to allow this social coalition to disintegrate.
Shivakumar has spent years as the party's main troubleshooter, poll strategist and financier - a role he has excelled in. Now, he's stepping into the most public-facing role of his career, one that will require him to build larger coalitions, deepen his hold on his own Vokkaliga community and steer the party after an underwhelming three years in power. He will have to contend with Siddaramaiah - who has declined a Rajya Sabha berth - looming large over the Congress and Karnataka politics. After having successfully resolved one challenge, the Congress will have to quickly brace for another....
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