Parsing Trump's SOTU speech
India, Feb. 26 -- Donald Trump's State of the Union (SOTU) address came against the backdrop of challenging shifts in the paradigms for geopolitics, global trade, and technology. With just months left for the 250th anniversary of American independence, Trump predictably made the speech about his vision of American primacy, which - more likely than not - will have serious fallouts for the rest of the world. Parsing Trump's speech, a few key takeaways emerge for India.
In geopolitics, securing US interests in the "Western hemisphere", including through active interventions in the US's neighbourhood and Latin America, remains Trump's overarching priority. That said, the US won't hesitate to intervene elsewhere to uphold its interests - as evident in Trump's renewed threats against Iran. Trump made no direct reference to China, but his tributes to American veterans of conflicts overseas, including past ones in the Indo-Pacific, seemed to be as much about China's expansionist designs in the region as they were about the US's bipartisan tradition of honouring its troops. India, given its uneasy relationship with its northern neighbour and the importance of the Indo-Pacific region for trade and strategic considerations, is served well by a counterbalance to China in the region and might have preferred a more explicit reference.
In trade policy, Trump doubled down on tariffs, including as a negotiation tool for trade deals, in his speech, signalling that the administration is committed to keeping these alive even after the US Supreme Court deemed the earlier invocation of a legal provision to back the "liberation day" tariffs as unconstitutional. The President's assertion that the tariffs will stay and no Congressional confirmation will be needed for this suggests that his administration will bank on newer legislative carve-outs to keep the tariffs in the President's executive domain. The legislative framework invoked at present calls for a Congressional vote to extend the tariffs beyond 150 days - this deadline will precede the mid-term elections in the US by several months. Given the Republicans' slim majority in the US Congress, Trump is unlikely to risk an adverse vote. India must assume that tariffs will remain a reality and navigate trade talks accordingly.
Finally, on the technology side, Trump spoke about allowing captive power sources for AI data-centres - a significant cost advantage for companies looking to set these up in the US. For India, hosting data centres is a key part of its larger strategy to be present in every node of the AI value-chain. So, it has to be fleet-footed on raising its competitive advantage in this business in the immediate run....
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