NEW DELHI, March 14 -- India's steadily rising mobile phone exports, which generated $11 billion in revenue in the first six months of the current fiscal, are expected to take a multi-billion-dollar hit as a result of a prolonged impact of the Iran war on consumption, imports and freight transit in the Gulf region. Executives, analysts and brokerage firms estimate a loss of $2 billion-3 billion on India's electronics exports, largely because electronics manufacturing services (EMS) companies export a sizeable quantity of mobile phones to the Gulf area-a key trade and consumption hub. Mobile phones are among the top five most-impacted commodities as a result of the Gulf nations and the West Asia region being directly affected in Israel and the US's war on Iran, analysts Suvodeep Rakshit and Swarupjit Palit at brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities wrote in a note to investors on 6 March. The analysts cited India's commerce ministry data to say that mobile phone exports to the Gulf and West Asia rose to $3.1 billion in FY25, accounting for 12% of the country's net electronics exports. This entire chunk may be affected and EMS companies that rely significantly on mobile phone manufacturing may be substantially hit, at least in the current quarter and next. If the conflict continues, the entire $3 billion in export value may be wiped off in the next fiscal year, the Kotak analysts said. To circumvent this impact, EMS companies may ramp up exports to other regions, including the US, the UK, China, Japan, the Netherlands, Germany and Mexico. Mobile phone exports have grown steadily in India. Electronics, driven by the Centre's manufacturing incentives and exports push, are India's third most-shipped out commodity, the ministry of electronics and IT said on 27 October. Data published by the ministry showed that from April to September 2025, India exported $11 billion of mobile phones-50% of its $22 billion net electronics exports. At a projected average of 10%, the loss of $2 billion-3 billion from India's electronics export revenue appears on track if the conflict continues through the year. The disruption, analysts said, could hit Foxconn Technology Group (which includes Bharat FIH, Rising Stars and Yuzhan Technology India) and Tata Electronics, both of which are privately held and are contract manufacturers for Apple, as well as Dixon Technologies, India's largest publicly listed mobile maker. Samsung India's in-house manufacturing and exports operations, as well as local companies Lava and Micromax's parent Bhagwati Products could also be impacted. "Global mobile phones demand had already been declining, hitting Dixon's December quarter earnings," said a senior official closely aware of the developments at Dixon. Dixon's operating quarterly revenue dropped 28% to Rs.10,672 crore in December as a result of slowing sales. The West Asia crisis could prove to be a double whammy for Dixon....