India, Nov. 10 -- Most international relations students will be hunting around to find a theory to understand and predict the present course of events. All accepted rules of the post-Cold War order have been overturned, including the most basic tenet of the State system, which rests on sovereignty. That is no longer absolute, challenged by multinational corporations, the internet, and space-based surveillance, all of which care little for borders. When matched with malign intent, it comes together in a continuous war being waged between almost all and sundry, with the distinction between enemy and friend incredibly fuzzy. But look harder, and there is a pattern, quite like the earlier one. In chaos, the challenge is to find that pattern. Most of us look through the lens of Trumpism to explain the unexplainable. On the surface, there seems to be no reason why US President Donald Trump is intent on alienating his allies and neighbours. The kidnapping of a sitting president from Venezuela and his wife is high treason by any standard, as is his virtual arm twisting of a deal on Greenland. Each of these instances, including the repeated threats to allies in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), seems like weaponised chaos. But consider the overall pattern. As estimates indicate, more than $8 billion from sales of Venezuelan oil has flowed into US- controlled accounts in a process marked by minimal transparency. In addition, the US holds first rights to this oil through a public-private partnership initiative to develop Venezuela's oil fields. In the case of Greenland, its criticality is neodymium and praseodymium, the working ingredients in the high-strength magnets inside electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, drones, guided munitions and industrial robotics. After repeated warnings of a takeover of Greenland on national security grounds, an agreement was reached that bans any foreign investment or entry into the country. It gave no specific favours to the US government but reports indicate a surge among Western firms positioning for contracts. That's quite a triumph, considering that China controls more than 90% of these resources. In sum, there is now complete control over a neighbour in Venezuela, and comfortable access to critical materials. In the old days, this was called colonisation. In fact, secretary of state Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference blamed Europe's decline on the end of colonialism and western dominance. So the new reality is that might is right, and other civilisations must kowtow or pay. In this game, the UN is irrelevant. Except that it didn't quite turn out that way everywhere. Why the US chose to hit Tehran days after it agreed to a verifiable end to Iran's nuclear weapons capability seems inexplicable. But Iran did not tamely give up, instead using a sophisticated strategy to hit selected targets and causing an unprecedented global oil crisis that did not allow West Asian producers to rake in money. But others did. According to an analysis by The New York Times, more than 50 major U.S. oil and gas companies earned over $130 billion in profit till September 2026, three times more than $47 billion before the war. It seems like a strategy of deliberate chaos, even while allies like Europe suffered. Similarly, Russia kept at the fight, defeating all prognostications of economic collapse and regime change. One factor was that China stepped in, doubling trade to some $245 billion, while providing vital supplies for its weapons systems. One expert view is that while not wanting Russia to collapse, Beijing did not want a clear win either. This way Western powers are kept engaged, and in Europe's case, exhausted. China was also reportedly supplying Iran with satellite intelligence for precision strikes, and parts for its missile inventory. Even more expectedly, it seems the two reigning powers may recognise the other's sphere of influence. The White House for one, has yet to clear weapons commitments for Taiwan. That harks back to superpower detente of the past with a new element of gray zone warfare; and that one is an Asian power. The war theatre is here. Meanwhile economic distress was directly linked to a series of student protests around the world. Protests have been on the same broad leitmotif - loss of trust in governments, crumbling infrastructure, and elitist domination. Meanwhile, the brutality of war set in motion some 77 protests on Gaza and a distinct rise in terrorist activity according to Europol, as groups utilised the violence for their own ends. It's all rather like a whirlpool, sucking in those who are not strong enough to withstand swift and violent change. For India, already the largest refiner of Venezuelan oil outside the US, and soon to host data centres driven out of American soil, there is a very fine line to tread. The US may be both friend and enemy, depending on the issue. Oddly, so is China. India has to gather heft by working with other countries in danger of being swept along in the tide. The biggest vulnerability, as Europe has found, could be internal. As new rules and realities emerge, time for foreign and internal policy makers to sit together, remembering that there are no permanent friends or enemies in either frame....