India, March 21 -- It was supposed to be a Venezuela-style shock-and-awe operation when it started. The US and Israel would eliminate Iran's top leadership, the people would rise, and voila, the "most oppressive and dangerous regime" in West Asia would end for good. Implications for energy security for the world at large and higher-order disruptions on account of the shock of launching a war in the epicentre of the global oil-and-gas economy were, perhaps, never even discussed. The world is having to live with a very different scenario three weeks after the war started. Multiple targeted assassinations have, so far, failed to trigger a collapse of the regime in Iran. The people seem to be rallying in favour of the State. The only shock-and-awe is seen in the realm of energy supplies and the nearly indispensable petrochemical-industrial complex. The reason is simple. Iranian attacks have shut off the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, which is just 21 miles at its narrowest, and accounts for the passage of 20% of the world's oil supply and 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas. US President Donald Trump cannot make up his mind on launching a full-scale military effort to ensure free traffic in the strait. Anyway, this is easier said than done. Iran can use unconventional methods to do enough damage to ships in the near-term. Most countries have recused themselves from Trump's call to join the effort. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz alone inflicted what the International Energy Agency termed the largest energy shock in modern history. Crude oil and gas prices are rising and fluctuating wildly. Matters have become significantly worse since then. Attacks and counterattacks on oil production facilities have done serious damage to production capacity as well. The latest round of such attacks happened on Wednesday and Thursday when Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field, and Tehran retaliated by targeting facilities of its neighbours (including Qatar's) in keeping with its stated principle of escalation. Trump tried to play class monitor, first admonishing Israel and then threatening Iran against counterattacks. The damage to production facilities will take significantly more time and money to restore after the war has ended or traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been restored. We are talking years and billions of dollars here. End users will have to bear the costs: First, due to scarcity, and second, by covering the investments needed to restore production capacity. Those who can't secure or afford the required inputs in the interim will suffer. The list of rationed outs will include poorer countries and sectors considered dispensable in a war economy. This means economies will suffer because of no fuel and petrochemical or gas-dependent industries - they include everything from ceramic tiles to steel - scrambling for inputs and passing over higher costs to consumers. The sum of all fears will be an acute fertilizer shortage, triggering a sharp decline in food production in the world. Most informed accounts from experts in the petrochemical industry suggest that these are not hypothetical scenarios anymore, and the question is the extent of the pain that will follow. India, thanks to its size and fiscal might, will be better off than many other emerging markets, but it will still suffer significantly. What is to be done? This is not India's or most of the world's war. But everybody will have to bear its costs. Almost all countries are waking up to this reality. They must put pressure on the US to put an end to the war and help the world cut its losses....