India, Nov. 12 -- Farm fires in Punjab and Haryana peakedfor the season on Diwali, and the surgewas far steeper than the usual numbers suggest. Analysis of data from INSAT-3DS, Isro's weather satellite, by this newspaper found that daily fire detections in the week to November 9 were 12.5 times those of the week to November 1. The count from Nasa's satellites, long considered the yardstick for stubble burning, rose 2.4 times. The reason is timing. Nasa's satellites passover the region in the afternoon, and the fields now burn in the evening. In 2021, anothersatellite - Europe's Meteosat - recorded 53%of the season's fire heat after 3pm; by 2025, the share was 98%. The count has collapsed as a result, though the burning has not. Nasa's tallyfor the two states fell from 84,240 fires in 2021 to 4,824 in 2025, while the area burned, as mapped by the research group iFOREST, shrank only by about a fifth. That falling count has become the measure of success. Punjab ministers credited their government with a 95% reduction in farm fires since 2020. To be sure, some of the progress is real, since less land is burning. But a 95% fall in fires counted and a far smaller fall in land burned describe very different problems. The burning is rooted in farm economics. Punjab expects at least 19 million tonnes of paddy straw this season, with a very short window to clear it before wheat is sown. By official estimates, roughly a third of it is burnt. The smoke does not stay in Punjab. How much straw to buy, how many machinesto subsidise and where to send enforcementteams all depend on knowing how much burns, where and when. Pollution-related curbs also depend on being able to pre-empt the smoke inthe air. Isro's satellite is no perfect answer: It misses small fires and those under cloud or smoke. But with maps of burnt land and the ground sensors now being placed in Punjab's villages, it can anchor an honest official count. Governments, both at the Centre and state, should build one and publish it every season. Untilthen, neither the governments claiming success nor the cities breathing the smoke will knowhow much of the problem remains....