Can India keep its balance in West Asia amid conflict?
New Delhi, May 25 -- For more than a decade, India has steadily deepened its ties with the Gulf while trying to balance competing interests across West Asia. But today, that strategy is under strain - amid the Iran conflict, shifting regional alignments, and a re-emerging Pakistan.
How is the Iran crisis affecting India? And what do these geopolitical shifts mean for India's West Asia policy? West Asia analyst Kabir Taneja discussed these and other questions on a recent episode of "Grand Tamasha," a weekly podcast on Indian politics and policy co-produced by HT and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Taneja is the executive director of the Observer Research Foundation's Middle East office. He has worked extensively on India's relations with the Middle East, examining domestic political dynamics, terrorism, non-state militant actors, and the region's evolving security architecture. He is also the author of The ISIS Peril: The World's Most Feared Terror Group and Its Shadow on South Asia.
Speaking to host Milan Vaishnav, Taneja highlighted Israel's growing centrality to Indian foreign and defence policy. "India sees Israel as a Walmart for high-end defence technologies," he quipped. "India has fought wars with Pakistan and China, with varied outcomes over the decades, and it has a perpetual requirement and appetite for high-end defence equipment because it has very volatile borders."
Taneja said Israel is one country "where India has found ease - where it can go and pick up whatever it requires for its defence needs." He noted that the India-Israel affinity stems from the fact that both countries face significant pushback regarding their national security requirements.
When it comes to Pakistan's newfound prominence as a mediator in West Asia, Taneja struck a sceptical note. "I do not think Pakistan has the capacity or the foresight to have a strategy that goes beyond three months," he said. "The Pakistanis know they have nothing to lose. And when you have nothing to lose, it is very easy to shoot in the dark. If something sticks, that is great, and that is pretty much what has happened." Taneja added that Pakistan is currently in the good graces of many regional players, but this does very little to fix its long-term institutional problems.
On the viability of India's strategy of multialignment, Taneja expressed skepticism that India's hedging strategy would change anytime soon. "India could choose not to hedge in West Asia, but I do not see how going completely one way - whether with the Gulf countries, Iran, or Israel - benefits India," he said. "The fact that all these players in the region have appreciated for decades that India does not take positions on regional conflicts and approaches every relationship bilaterally has benefited India," he added.
He added that the broader question India must confront is whether it wants to be a global heavyweight in geopolitics. "If it does, at some point India will be at a juncture where it has to decide which path to take," Taneja said. "For India to be a great power, the variables of its core calculations may have to change and move slightly more toward grand strategy rather than how to win the next election," he added....
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